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Prediction for CME (2024-04-24T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-24T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30252/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source eruption may be slow dimming starting around 2024-04-24T21:25Z in SDO AIA 193, centered around S40W25. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. No clear arrival signature seen in real time solar wind data. The closest possible arrival is at 2024-04-26 12:30Z, however it is also not a clear arrival signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-27T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30264/1
Model Inputs:
2024-04-24T01:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=29.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=431.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-04-24T09:08Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-27T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-01T06:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-27T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240424_090800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 69.47 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-04-24T18:32Z

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